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PLUS: Veterans Day, Trump hires, and realignment
Good morning and happy Veterans Day! to all the brave men and women who have worn our nation's uniform. Today, we remember their sacrifice and honor their service.
TRUMP
🐘 Trump makes more hires as transition continues
Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) with then-President Trump in 2019
President-elect Donald Trump made two big hires over the weekend. He’s landed on Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY) as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, which is the job Nikki Haley held last time around. Republicans will control the House by probably just five seats, so Stefanik’s appointment could sting.
Border czar: Trump said last night that former acting director of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) Tom Homan "will be in charge of the nation's borders." The "czar" title is informal and this guy won’t lead a Cabinet department. But Trump said Homan will oversee efforts to deport "illegal aliens back to their country of origin."
Not returning this time is Trump’s former U.N. ambassador and 2024 rival Nikki Haley. Former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who many in Trump’s orbit consider too war-hungry, will also not be asked back.
On the family side, daughter Ivanka and son-in-law Jared Kushner worked in the West Wing in term #1. But they’re done with politics for now.
On the inauguration front, Trump named former Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R-GA) and his buddy Steve Witkoff as co-chairs of the Trump Vance Inaugural Committee. His January 20, 2025 inauguration will be the 60th in U.S. history.
Donald Trump’s big win has millions of voters (4B, anyone?) worried about the future. That includes plenty of federal employees. Many are considering quitting, particularly at the Department of Justice. Meanwhile, Department of Defense staffers are discussing how to thwart his more controversial plans — which is itself just a weeee bit controversial.
Across the country, Democratic-led states are "ready to fight" Trump's agenda.
Future: What will President Trump: The Squeakquel look like? What’s he got planned for RFK? Why is TikTok freaked out about tariffs? We’ll go into detail in Wednesday’s issue.
Over in the Senate, two senators-elect from states that failed third-grade math and are somehow still counting a few votes weren’t invited to this week's Senate orientation.
GOVERNMENT
⛑️ Employees of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), part of the Department of Homeland Security, provide much-needed aid to vulnerable survivors of natural disasters. One supervisor in Florida was unceremoniously canned for not quite living up to that promise. When helping out victims of Hurricane Milton, she directed staff to "avoid homes advertising Trump." FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell called the incident “reprehensible” and said it's being investigated.
⚖️ The Department of Justice (DOJ) charged three men in Iranian plots to assassinate both Donald Trump and an Iranian-American journalist who is critical of Iran’s government. The two Americans allegedly hired to kill the journalist have been arrested. The man hired to help take out Trump is believed to be back in Iran. The DOJ’s top cop, Attorney General Merrick Garland, said Iran poses a “grave” threat to U.S. national security.
🚌 Texas can keep shipping busloads of migrants in the country illegally to New York City. A New York state court judge ruled that Mayor Eric Adams’ attempt to stop the flow is an unconstitutional violation of the “fundamental right” to travel. Adams had sued 17 charter companies hired by Texas Gov. Greg Abbott for the job and asked for $708 million to cover the cost of taking care of the migrants Abbott sent.
⚖️ Democrats hoping for a last-second Supreme Court retirement are going to be sorely disappointed. Many were calling on 70-year-old Sonia Sotomayor, one of the court’s three remaining liberals, to retire immediately so a much younger replacement could be rushed through the confirmation process before Republicans take power in January. Justice Sotomayor herself threw cold water on that far-fetched plan.
POLITICS
🗺️ Was last week’s election a realignment?
Once in a while, the political ground under America’s feet shifts dramatically. What was once reliable gets flipped on its head, often overnight. Republicans won seven of ten presidential races from 1952 to 1988. Then they lost four of six. Democrats controlled the House for 40 straight years from 1954 to 1994. In the 30 years since, they’ve held it for just six.
Until 1992, states like California, Connecticut, Illinois, and New Jersey were reliable Republican territory. They’ve voted Democratic ever since.
From 1874 to 1979, Texas elected exclusively Democratic governors. Since 1994? Exclusively Republicans.
Flips like this are called realignments. Last week, Donald Trump was 5.1% of the vote away from becoming the first Republican since 1988 to win New Jersey. The mostly ignored, solidly Democratic state was closer to flipping than the hard-fought swing state of Arizona was. And solidly Democratic states like New York and Illinois were closer than the former swing state of Florida.
The 97% Latino border county of Starr County, TX voted Republican for the first time in 132 years. Other nearby counties made similar rightward swings of up to 74% compared to 2020.
Tim Walz’s home state of Minnesota was 4.2% of the vote from going Republican for the first time since 1972 (yikes, that would’ve been embarrassing).
Queens, New York shifted 19% rightward. Brooklyn jumped 12%. The Democratic margin in The Bronx fell by 22%.
Exit polls show Donald Trump lost support among white voters but gained significantly with non-white voters. He likely did better with Black voters than any Republican since 1976. He did better with Hispanic voters than any Republican since the data began in 1972. He probably won a majority of Hispanic men.
Gender: Trump won 54% of men. Harris won 53% of women.
Marriage: Harris won single women. Trump won single men, married men, and married women.
Age: Compared to 2020, young women shifted to Trump by 14%. Young men jumped 30%. Voters between 18-29 went 51% to Harris and 46% to Trump.
Family: Trump won 53% of parents of children under 18.
Religion: Catholics swung 10% toward Trump after Harris became the first nominee since 1984 to skip the Al Smith Dinner.
Haters: Trump won people who hated both candidates by 8%.
Simply put, more voters saw him as the “change candidate.” Swing voters believed inflation was too high, that too many immigrants were crossing the border, and that Harris was too focused on spicy cultural issues.
Many young Black and Hispanic men voted Trump due to economic concerns.
If the big shift toward Trump in traditionally Democratic areas holds with another Republican in 2028, the electoral map that year could look very different than it has in the recent past. The shift could help Republicans at the state and national levels. But going from, say, 15% to 30% in deep blue areas isn’t going to win them any more House seats. And if that’s partially offset by losses among moderate suburban voters, the party may be worse off in the medium term.
TRIVIA
Today is Veterans Day. Every year on November 11, we celebrate all those who accepted the call to serve and helped secure the freedoms that enable the rest of us to focus on things like writing really, really good political newsletters or having two too many tacos last night. November 11 was chosen for Veterans Day to commemorate the end of hostilities in which war?
Hint: Think 20th century.
HARRIS
😵 How did the Harris campaign blow $1 billion?
The 2024 presidential campaign cost a record-breaking $3.5 billion. Harris and her allies spent $1.9 billion, while Trump and his friends spent a meager $1.6 billion. Much of Trump's cash was raised (and spent) by outside groups. But the Harris team itself took in most of the cash on the Democratic side. Despite its $1 billion budget, Kamala Harris’s campaign ended the race $20 million in debt. So what happened to all that cash?
Harris’s big election eve concerts last Monday featuring big names like Lady Gaga, Katy Perry, and Jon Bon Jovi cost an estimated $20 million to produce.
The campaign shelled out $1 million to Oprah’s production company.
Instead of using the show’s existing set, Harris spent $100,000+ building a new set in a D.C. hotel room to record her interview on “Call Her Daddy”
Things are so bad, the campaign is still fundraising to cover the debt and many vendors are worried they won’t get paid. The FEC has the gritty details if you’d like to do some digging for more jaw-droppers.
The party's loss to Trump has some Democrats wondering if A-list celebrity endorsements hurt more than they help. Support from Taylor Swift, Beyoncé, and George Clooney might accidentally paint Democrats “as the party of elites.”
Elsewhere, party insiders begged Harris not to campaign with Liz Cheney (former VP Dick’s daughter), fearing she’d also hurt more than she’d help.
Regardless, Democrats can rest assured knowing they made the right choice in dumping Joe Biden. In defeating Kamala Harris, Donald Trump won 312 electoral votes. The Biden campaign’s internal polling showed Trump winning more than 400 against the current president.
BRIEFS
● Dutch police arrested pro-Palestinian protestors on Sunday following a court-ordered ban on such rallies. After last Thursday’s soccer match versus Israel, dozens of Arabic-speaking men chased and assaulted Israelis through the streets of Amsterdam.
● President Biden doesn’t plan on pardoning his son Hunter, who is set to be sentenced next month on his felony gun and tax charges. Trump said he’ll consider it as an act of unity.
● Ukraine launched 34 drones at Russia’s capital of Moscow, far from the war’s front. All seem to have been shot down by Russian defenses. Meanwhile, Ukraine confirmed that North Korean troops are in the fight alongside Russia in eastern Ukraine.
● Deforestation in Brazil’s 60% share of the Amazon rainforest has dropped to its lowest level in nine years. Much of the deforestation is driven by poverty-stricken farmers who clear land to grow crops.
● China announced $1.4 trillion in fiscal aid to help bail out bankrupt local governments. China hopes the move can boost its sagging economy ahead of possible tariffs (taxes on imports) by the incoming Trump administration.
● U.S. stocks closed at record highs on Friday. The S&P 500 and the Dow, two of the three major stock market indexes (just lists of big stocks), saw their best weeks in a year last week.
● The small Middle Eastern country of Qatar is kicking Hamas leaders out of the country. It’s also suspending its role as a mediator in Israel-Hamas peace talks.
QUOTE
I’m not certain that any Democrat would have won this year. We have to just acknowledge that Donald Trump is more than a passing fad.
ANSWER
On the eleventh hour of the eleventh day of the eleventh month, an armistice with Germany went into effect that ended fighting in World War I (aka: The Great War). The treaty officially ending the war wasn’t signed until the following June, but fighting ended on November 11, 1918. More than 2,700 men were killed on the war’s final day.