Good morning! Today is the first anniversary of the Hamas attack on Israel that killed 1,200 people and launched deadly wars in Gaza and Lebanon. American security officials are warning of potential threats and Israel is on high alert.

We’ve got 29 days left until Election Day.

COURT

👨‍⚖️ Court is now in session

The robes are pressed, the wigs are fluffed — wait, no, that’s (still) the British — and the September scaries are behind us. Congress is out of town until after Election Day but October is here and that means it’s back to work for the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS). The court’s 2024-25 term formally begins today.

In their summers off, the justices often take side gigs to supplement their incomes. They earn annual salaries of $298,500 and the chief justice brings in an extra $13,700. That’s a good chunk of change but it’s nothing compared to what they could rake in at high-end law firms.

• They're allowed to earn up to $30,000 teaching college courses, so that's a common avenue for extra cash on top of their steady flow of uncapped book royalties.

• While they can't be paid for speaking gigs, meals and travel expenses can be covered. Unsurprisingly, the University of Hawaii is a common destination.

The Red Mass is the court’s unofficial annual kickoff party in Washington. The concept of a church service honoring the judicial profession dates back nearly 800 years. D.C.'s been doing it since 1953. Led by a Catholic cardinal, the service is typically attended by government officials, attorneys, and a gaggle of Supreme Court justices. At least three of the nine stopped in yesterday (six of ‘em are Catholic).

The new term promises to be just as spicy as we’ve come to expect. The justices typically accept about 80 cases per year and they’ve got 40 already loaded. Touchy subjects the court is set to take up include:

• Transgender rights for minors

• Regulations on so-called ghost guns

• An Oklahoma death penalty case

• Age restrictions for online porn

• The Mexican government’s case against U.S. gun companies

Sounds like a walk in the park that definitely won’t spark furious protests no matter what happens. As a bonus, things could get even crazier if the court is forced to step into a post-election showdown à la 2000. Said Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, “the Supreme Court has to be prepared to respond” to any “legal issues that arise out of the political process.”

GOVERNMENT

🛫 The Biden administration will not extend a two-year-old migration program. The program let certain migrants fly into the U.S. without prior permission as long as they had someone here to sponsor them. About 530,000 migrants from Cuba, Haiti, Nicaragua, and Venezuela took part. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) said they'll have to apply for another type of legal status, leave, or be deported. For that, they've got plenty of options. Cubans can benefit from a 1966 immigration program, while others could be granted protected status due to violence back home.

📈 The U.S. economy grew by 254,000 jobs in September, according to new info from the data nerds at the Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The good news beat economists' wild guesses expectations, with one calling it "very positive" and "a bit of a game-changer." On top of that, the unemployment rate dropped slightly from 4.2% to 4.1%. But it's still higher than last year's low of 3.4%.

🇾🇪 The U.S. military struck 15 targets in Yemen. All were controlled by the Iran-backed Houthi rebels who keep attacking passing container ships in the nearby Red Sea (of Moses fame). The Houthis have controlled Yemen's capital and northern and western regions since 2015. U.S. Central Command —that’s the unified command that controls the activity of all U.S. military branches in the Middle East — carried out the strikes.

POLITICS

🇺🇸 Trump finishes rally in Butler, PA

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have just four weeks left to convince voters to give them the biggest job in the world. With a razor-tight race that’s anyone’s game, the final campaign push will come at breakneck speed for the candidates.

Donald Trump on Saturday returned to the Butler, Pennsylvania site where he was nearly assassinated on July 13. He began his speech to the massive crowd with an all-time line: “As I was saying.” Elon Musk later joined him on stage and called the election a "must-win situation" (while, of course, wearing his OCCUPY MARS t-shirt). The event also included a memorial to the man who lost his life in the July shooting.

Kamala Harris has given relatively few interviews since winning the campaign lotto in July and has been accused for months of avoiding the press. She’s turning that around now and has a media blitz planned for this week, which began yesterday with an appearance on Call Her Daddy.

• She’ll be on 60 Minutes today discussing her vision for the country and the differences between herself and Trump.

• She’ll be pretty much everywhere tomorrow: The View, Howard Stern, and Stephen Colbert.

• On Thursday during a campaign swing through Vegas, she’s got a town hall event scheduled with Univision.

• She’ll finish the whirlwind week in Arizona on Friday. Early voting begins there on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, Democrats are worried that Harris is blowing it by playing it too safe. Slipping support from labor unions is hurting in Michigan and President Biden isn't campaigning for Harris as much as he'd promised (that may be by design). But President Obama is hitting the road for her over the next four weeks. The Harris campaign plans to spend that time casting Trump as a threat to democracy.

• Panic isn’t only for Democrats, however. Campaigns love banking votes early, but Republicans are worried Trump is getting in the way of their early-voting efforts.

• They’re also worried that his push to mobilize low-propensity voters is a waste of time that should instead be spent convincing moderates.

TRIVIA

Most Americans favor judicial term limits, but the Constitution says federal judges, including Supreme Court justices, serve for life. A rare few justices in history have resigned after a year or two. Chief Justice John Roberts has been around since 2005 and the court’s newest member, Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has two years under her belt. For how many years did the longest-serving U.S. Supreme Court justice serve?

Hint: If his court tenure was a person, it would be old enough to serve as president.

POLLS

📊 Election betting takes on political polling

Taking reliable political polls is a difficult task that’s made more difficult by the high costs involved. But, instead of paying for data, what if we take a look at the data created by people who themselves have skin in the game?

• Election bettors at Polymarket give Donald Trump a 50.8% chance of victory.

• That’s buoyed by his 53.5% chance in Pennsylvania — and backed by more than $1.3 billion in bets.

Let’s see how that compares to our regularly scheduled programming:

• ⚪️ We’re tied at 49% nationally (RMG)

• 🔵 Or, Harris leads by 2% nationally (Emerson)

• 🔵 Or, Harris leads by 2% nationally (Marist)

• 🔴 Trump leads by 1% in Arizona (IA)

• 🔴 Trump leads by a shockingly low 2% in Florida (RMG)

• 🔵 Harris leads by 1% in Georgia (IA)

• 🔴 Trump leads by 1% in Michigan (Mitchell)

• 🔵 Or, Harris leads by 3% in Michigan (RMG)

• 🔴 Trump leads by 4% in North Carolina (RMG)

• 🔴 Trump leads by 27% in Republicanville, aka North Dakota (NDNC)

Up in New Hampshire, voters plan to split their ballots. Granite State voters support Harris by 7%. But they like a Republican for governor and Democrats for Congress (St. Anselm)

BRIEFS

• European Space Agency follows NASA's lead, launches spacecraft to asteroid in test of planetary defense abilities

• Florida bracing for Hurricane Milton, prepares to evacuate millions by midweek

• Deadly 2023 Maui wildfire erupted from earlier brushfire thought to be already put out

• Saudi economic move to tank oil prices could kill oil-dependent Russian war budget

• Ukraine promises to unveil "Victory Plan" at Biden-led allies meeting on Oct. 12

• Israel sharply ups strikes on Lebanon, devastates Hezbollah leadership

• Slovakia vows to block NATO plan for post-war Ukrainian membership in defense pact

• Haitian prime minister goes abroad seeking security help after gang violence kills dozens

• Mass protests in Hungary push for end to government propaganda as E.U. sues country for security law

QUOTE

ANSWER

Justice William O. Douglas’s record tenure lasted 36 years, 207 days. He joined the court in 1939 at age 40 and left in 1975 at age 77. Current Justice Clarence Thomas joined the court at 43 in 1991 and is going on 33 years. Should he serve until May 21, 2028, Thomas will beat Douglas’s record.