☀️ New Hampshire vs. America

New Hampshire fights for its right (to go first) and Michigan Democrats lose by winning.

Good morning. The House is going home today for a long Thanksgiving break. They’ll be back in D.C. on the 28th. We’ll let you know if any fights break out while they try to leave town.

Here’s a look at today’s menu:

  • New Hampshire fights for its right (to go first)

  • Sometimes winning is losing

  • Goochland County, VA

  • And much more!

Here’s today’s edition of The Elective:

 2024 

New Hampshire Under Fire

A Bernie Sanders even in New Hampshire, 2016 (Ted Eytan / CC BY-SA 2.0)

Over the objections of the Democratic National Committee (DNC), New Hampshire will hold its presidential primary on January 23, 2024. The state that's held the "first-in-the-nation" primary will vote first once again.

New Hampshire has gone first since 1920. Why? They just...decided to. And it stuck. And when other states periodically try to jump ahead, New Hampshire jumps further. Since the rise of the modern presidential primary process in 1972, The Granite State's political stature has only risen.

  • Candidates like campaigning in New Hampshire.

  • The people are, at this point, comfortable attending gobs of political events.

  • The state's population is small, so it's easy to meet individual voters.

  • Since candidates can meet voters in-person, expensive TV ad campaigns aren't required.

What about Iowa?: Technically, Iowa does vote before New Hampshire. But Iowa does not hold a primary. They hold a caucus -- that's a large (bizarre) meeting wherein large groups of voters decide together who to support. It does award delegates that candidates need to win the nomination. But it is not a primary.

The change: The Democratic Party says it wants to allow a more diverse set of voters to choose its nominee going forward. New Hampshire is ~90% White. So they decided South Carolina (heavily Black) would go first. Nevada (heavily Hispanic) would go second.

The opposition view: Things changed to prevent an effective primary challenge to President Biden. His primary support is stronger in South Carolina. And a weak showing in New Hampshire might provide the momentum a primary challenger (like Rep. Dean Phillips) needs. So it's best to start with his stronger states.

The future: Defending New Hampshire's status is a bipartisan exercise. It's also state law. So, today, the state announced its primary date: January 23, 2024.

Since that conflicts with DNC rules, the primary will award no delegates. And, to support the DNC in this fight, President Biden will not appear on the New Hampshire primary ballot. While delegates are, in the end, what candidates are after, the New Hampshire primary has always been about one thing: momentum.

 NEWS 

Taoiseach Leo Varadkar (The Oireachtas / CC-BY-2.0)

🌳 Climate: At their meeting in San Francisco yesterday, President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to cooperate on climate change. They pledged to speed up adoption of renewable energy and reduce their own countries' greenhouse gas emissions. They will also support efforts to triple global renewables capacity by 2030. This is the first time China has openly agreed to reduce its emissions of gasses beyond carbon dioxide (like methane). Today's joint agreement is part of a plan is to keep global temperature rise to less than 1.5 degrees Celsius. It marks substantial progress on the issue between the world's two largest emitters of greenhouse gasses. But challenges remain. Among them, China has not yet agreed to phase down its use of coal.

🇨🇳 China: Presidents Biden and Xi chatted about more than just the climate. Xi called on the U.S. to avoid recognizing Taiwanese independence and to stop selling them weapons. Biden said they made “important progress.” Xi said “Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed.” They agreed to restore some military-to-military communications. China cut communications last year after then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. China considers Taiwan, a self-ruled island, Chinese territory. They viewed her visit as a deliberate provocation. But the lack of communication led to some close calls — like when Chinese and American aircraft came within 10 feet of colliding.

🇮🇪 Ireland: Irish opposition leader Mary Lou McDonald called for Israel’s ambassador to be expelled from Ireland. She made the statement at the annual conference of her left-wing political party, Sinn Féin. Also attending was Palestine’s ambassador to Ireland. McDonald called Israel’s recent actions “barbaric, hateful, cowardly war crimes.” Ireland’s Taoiseach (prime minister) Leo Varadkar recently said Israel has “the right to defend itself” but that its current actions in Gaza are “approaching revenge." He is a member of center-right party Fine Gael. Israel released videos yesterday allegedly proving Hamas is using hospitals in Gaza as military outposts.

 POLITICS 

Rep. Pat Fallon’s campaign for Texas state Senate

Michigan Democrats will soon lose control of state government. The governor is a Democrat. They hold the majority in the Michigan state Senate. And they control the Michigan state House of Representatives 56-54. But two Democratic Representatives just won mayoral races (woo!). When they take office later this month, the chamber will be deadlocked 54-54 (uh-oh). And, due to state law on the timing of new elections, it could remain that way for nine months (ouch).

Rep. Pat Fallon (R-TX) is retiring running for reelection. The second-term Congressman said he would retire from the House and go home to run for the Texas state Senate. The next day, he changed his mind. He wants to stay in D.C.

John McGuire (R) is running for Congress in Virginia. Why is that interesting? Because he was just elected to the Virginia state Senate nine days ago. We’re no experts but that seems like an odd choice. McGuire has represented Goochland County in the state House since 2018.

New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy (D) is running for U.S. Senate next year. Murphy is the wife of two-term Gov. Phil Murphy. Many progressives have expressed their distrust in her — until her husband ran for office, she was a Republican. But that hasn’t stopped local party machines from supporting her. In New Jersey, local political parties can openly endorse favored candidates on the ballot. And it seems many are lining up to support her. Murphy would be the first women elected to the Senate from New Jersey. She will face Rep. Andy Kim in the primary. And, if he chooses to run again, current Sen. Robert Menendez — despite his indictment for “conspiring to act as an agent of a foreign government.”

 TRIVIA 

Rep. Hal Rogers of Kentucky serves a special role in Congress. It’s the (mostly honorary) job given to the House’s most senior member.

Question: In what role does he serve?

 BRIEFS 

🎨 A 1932 Picasso painting sold for $139 million at an auction in New York. The painting, “Femme à la Montre,” fetched the second highest ever price for a Picasso. His “Les femmes d’Alger (Version ‘O’)” sold in 2015 for $179 million.

👶 People are having fewer children today than ever before. Part of that reason could be a ~50% decrease in sperm count among men worldwide. And a new study blames that on widely used pesticides.

👨‍⚖️ Former President Trump’s attorneys requested a mistrial at his civil fraud trial in New York. They cited “overwhelming” evidence that the judge is biased against Trump.

💻 YouTube will soon warn viewers when the video they’re watching was made with AI — but only when it’s realistic. Facebook, Instagram, and TikTok have announced similar policies.

⚖️ The man who attacked Paul Pelosi (husband of then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi) with a hammer last year is on trial. He faces 50 years in prison for attempted kidnapping (of Nancy) and assault (of Paul).

 QUOTE 

It took me my whole life to learn to draw like a child.

— Spanish cubist painter Pablo Picasso (1881-1973)

 ANSWER 

Rep. Hal Rogers is dean of the House. It’s a title given to the House’s longest continuously-serving member. Its only customary duty is to swear-in the speaker of the House at the start of each new Congress. Rogers (a Kentucky Republican) has served in the House since 1981.