Good morning! Happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day. MLK was born on this day in 1929.

Denmark got a new king yesterday. Queen Margrethe II became the first Danish monarch to abdicate in over 900 years. Her son, Frederick X, took the reins. Sort of related: Bluetooth is named for an old Danish king named Harald Bluetooth. The Bluetooth logo is his initials.

 2024 

🥶 Iowa’s time in the spotlight ends tonight

The presidential election begins in full swing tonight when the Iowa caucuses kick off at 7:00 Central. With President Biden running for reelection, the Democratic side of things is basically a settled outcome. So all the energy this year is on the Republican side.

What the heck is a caucus? It’s a primary by another name (and method). While primary elections are usually run by the state, political parties run caucuses. Instead of voting whenever you want, you go to your caucus location at start time. Here’s what it looks like from there:

1. Everyone elects leaders for the evening.

2. Supporters of each candidate give speeches to spin up support for their team.

3. Everyone votes by writing a candidate’s name on a blank sheet of paper.

These things used to be even weirder. This is the first year that doesn’t involve sorting people into groups by the candidate they support.

Why does this matter? Pretty much just because it’s the first contest in the nominating process. Momentum from a better-than-expected result in Iowa can sweep a candidate into a national primary victory (see: Obama, Barack). Iowa’s also cheap to campaign in. The 2012 Republican winner had almost zero budget and just cruised around in a truck with a single aide.

Expectations: Forget exceeding expectations. What if a candidate doesn't meet them? They often crash and burn at lightning speed. Expect to see the campaigns try to manage expectations today. Downplaying their support makes it more likely they can claim they beat expectations and less likely that they’ll be seen has having underperformed.

Polling: So who's winning this thing? Ann Selzer (the Iowa polling GOAT) released her poll over the weekend. She’s got:

• Trump - 48%

• Haley - 20%

• DeSantis - 16%

• Ramaswamy - 8%

DeSantis likely has the biggest organization in Iowa. That's important in a caucus due to the time commitment and need for volunteers to speak at each location. Will it be enough to fend off the rise of Nikki Haley? Maybe. But, barring a miracle, they're both playing for a distant second.

Tonight: The caucuses begin at 7:00 p.m. Unless they totally screw it up (again), we should get results late tonight. With temperatures in Des Moines cold enough (-12° right now) to kill even the strongest of New Year's workout resolutions, turnout should be low. That usually benefits candidates with more enthusiastic supporters (so...not Haley).

Tomorrow: Immediately after Iowa, everything moves to New Hampshire ahead of next Tuesday’s primary. And immediately means immediately — campaigns often leave Iowa in the middle of the night and host events in New Hampshire for breakfast.

 CHINA 

🇹🇼 Taiwan elects new, anti-China president

Taiwan elected a new, pro-US president over the weekend. William Lai, the current VP, takes office in May. He's a member of Taiwan's most anti-China party. Obviously, China's not happy — their guy lost.

What's the deal with Taiwan? Taiwan’s rich. They make a solid majority of the semiconductors the whole world uses in, well, all modern tech.

• Most of its people are ethnically Chinese. Taiwan's official name is actually the Republic of China. China's is the People's Republic of China (no, no, this one’s called “The Suicide Squad”).

• The island was (mostly) controlled by China for centuries. When the Communists won the Chinese Civil War in the 1940s, the government of mainland China (the losing side) fled to Taiwan and has governed there ever since.

The controversy: The Communists that still rule China see Taiwan as an illegitimate offshoot. And both countries view themselves as the legal ruler of the other. So the threat of a Chinese invasion is always a concern.

Hero to zero: Taiwan's government helped found the United Nations. In 1971, the UN switched Chinas (from Taiwan to mainland China). Now? Taiwan isn't even recognized as technically indepenent by most of the world (including its allies like the US).

 BRIEFS: 

• Two US Navy SEALs are missing after a mission off the coast of Somalia

• The FAA is keeping all those Boeing 737 Max 9s grounded while they mull things over

• The Justice Department is pushing for the death penalty for 2022’s Buffalo, NY mass shooter

• A mudslide in rural, mountainous Colombia killed dozens of people

• John Kerry will soon step down as Biden’s top climate negotiator

• Jelly Roll testified before the Senate on the fentanyl crisis

 TRIVIA 

On this day in 1777, a place that’s now a US state declared its independence. It held a semi-recognized status as an independent nation for 14 years until it joined the Union in 1791.

Which state is that?

 WORLD 

🇨🇭 Switzerland: The annual World Economic Forum (WEF) began yesterday in Davos, Switzerland. The increasingly controversial meeting (ostensibly) promotes global trade and economic cooperation. Loads of global business and political leaders are attending.

🇹🇷 Turkey: Turkey struck militants in two of its neighbors, Iraq and Syria, following an attack against a Turkish military base in Iraq. Turkey's enemy here is the Kurds — an ethnic group without a country of their own, but one whose homeland spans about every border in this region.

🇸🇪 Sweden: Sweden is building two submarines to patrol the Baltic Sea near Russia. The move could help convince holdouts Hungary and Turkey to finally approve Sweden’s NATO membership application.

🇾🇪 Yemen: Joint US-UK airstrikes against (Iran-backed) Houthi targets in Yemen continued Friday into Saturday. Iran condemned the strikes and the Houthis promised a “strong and effective response.”

🇮🇱 Israel: Israel told Egypt (its ally) that it would soon begin an attack to take control of an Egypt-Gaza border crossing. It last controlled this area in 2005.

 QUOTE 

 SNACKS 

📱 Aviation: NASA unveiled its prototype X-59 supersonic jet that, because science, has no loud sonic boom. Pilots will have to fly this thing using a 4k TV in the cockpit — there’s no front-facing window.

☠️ Zone of Death: Need to legally murder someone? Check out this 50-square-mile section of Yellowstone National Park. Weird legal theory incoming.

 ANSWER 

The Vermont Republic was short-lived and was also claimed by New York. But hey, 14 years is a good run — it’s 4 years longer than Texas got.