☀️ Dean Phillips jumps in

Dean Phillips is in. Mike Pence is out.

Good morning and welcome to the Elective. Fans are mourning the loss of “Friends” star Matthew Perry. Perry died suddenly over the weekend aged 56. Celebrate his life and legacy by checking out a Halloween episode or one of the best of Chandler Bing.

We’ve got a lot in store for you today:

  • Biden gets a challenger

  • Mike Pence is out

  • Footballfish exist

  • And much more!

Here’s today’s edition of The Elective:

 2024 

Dean Phillips enters Democratic presidential race

Dean Phillips / Dean24

Minnesota Rep. Dean Phillips is running for President. The three-term congressman is challenging President Biden for the Democratic nomination. He announced his campaign in New Hampshire just minutes before the state’s filing deadline. His slogan: “Everyone’s invited.”

Why New Hampshire?

Since 1920, the Granite State has held the first presidential primary in the country each election cycle. It’s also often been fertile ground for insurgent challengers to incumbent presidents (see: 1968, 1980, and 1992). A strong showing here could be a huge boon to the late-starting Phillips campaign.

Unfortunately for Phillips, Biden won’t be on the New Hampshire primary ballot. The president’s absence is part of a fight between the national and state Democratic parties over the date of the state's primary. It also happens to rob Phillips of his biggest chance at an upset.

Why challenge Biden?

Voters largely believe President Biden is too old for the job. Two-thirds of Democratic-leaning voters say they would prefer their party nominate someone not named Joe Biden. That said, two-thirds also believe Joe Biden will be the nominee. And no other single candidate gets more than 3% support.

Dean Phillips has little to lose by running.

  • If he wins, he’s president. The upside is obvious.

  • If he loses, he can still run for reelection to his seat in the House of Representatives. Minnesota’s filing deadline is not until June — long after the presidential nomination is usually settled.

  • Even if he loses his House seat to a primary rival of his own, he can easily fall back into his pile of money. His family controls a large liquor distillery that gives the Congressman a net worth of at least $50 million.

Can he win?

No first-term president has been denied his party’s nomination since Chester Arthur lost the Republican line in 1884. Even then, Arthur was in ill health and passed away two years later.

So if history is any guide, don’t count on Phillips defeating Biden in a one-on-one race. But a strong showing in the early primaries could cause other, stronger challengers to see opportunity and jump into the race. And the thought of a hard-fought primary battle may cause the incumbent to bow out. That’s exactly what happened in 1968.

Looking forward: Phillips is making a generational argument similar to the one a young Biden made in 1972. He also says he’s worried Biden might lose to Trump.

But Team Biden doesn’t appear to be worried about the challenge. The first two official (aka: not New Hampshire) primary races are South Carolina — where Biden is strong — and Nevada — where Phillips will not be on the ballot.

 NEWS 

🇯🇵 Japan: The Japanese government is working on a plan to ensure the stability of imperial (royal) succession. By Japanese law, women cannot become emperor. And they lose their royal titles when they marry commoners. As a result, there are only two living possible successors to the current emperor, Naruhito — his brother and nephew (Naruhito has one child, a daughter). If that nephew does not someday have a son, the world's oldest continuous hereditary monarchy will die out. Or they could just change the rules. One suggested change? Allow women to keep their titles upon marriage. A second option would allow royal “adoption” of male descendants of former imperial family branches stripped of their titles in 1947. Japan is the only country whose ruler still uses the title of "emperor."

🚗 Labor: The United Auto Workers union has struck a tentative deal with Stellantis (Chrysler’s parent company) to end their strike after six weeks. If approved, some of the lowest-paid workers would see their pay more than double. Most workers would see 25% raises over the next four-and-a-half years. The deal would also ensure a recently closed plant would reopen. Autoworkers will return to work while the deal works its way through the final approval process. The UAW came to a similar agreement with Ford last week. They have yet to reach a deal with General Motors (the third and final automaker involved).

🇲🇽 Mexico: The death toll for Hurricane Otis rose to 43, per the Mexican government. The record-breaking storm damaged over 80% of hotels in tourist mecca Acapulco in the state of Guerrero. Thousands of Mexican troops have been deployed as part of the government’s disaster response effort as hundreds of thousands of people are still without power. President Biden released a statement saying the loss of life “deeply saddened” him and that the US government was working to “ensure the safety” of American citizens in the area.

 POLITICS 

GIPHY

🔴 Former VP Mike Pence dropped out of the Republican presidential race. “After much prayer and deliberation, I have decided to suspend my campaign for president,” he said in a speech Saturday. His campaign lasted just 142 days. The former vice president had yet to hit the polling numbers required to secure an invite to the third GOP presidential debate on Nov. 8. With his polling numbers stuck in the 2-4% range, Pence stated succinctly: “This is not my time.” Most remaining candidates jumped at the chance to say nice things about their deposed rival (they of course all want his support). For his part, former President Trump said Pence "should endorse me."

🔵 New Jersey Rep. Andy Kim is not only challenging indicted incumbent Sen. Bob Menendez in the Democratic primary for US Senate next year. He’s also challenging the state party bosses. How so? In New Jersey, county-level political parties can openly endorse their favored candidates on the actual ballots. They can also put disfavored candidates in “ballot Siberia.” Kim has come out against this so-called "county line system." Winning in New Jersey is difficult without the support of local parties. And challenging their control is not going to win him any favors. But his opponent is facing federal charges for "conspiring to act as a foreign agent." So that's certainly not going to hurt Kim's case.

🔴 Newly elected Speaker Mike Johnson has his work cut out for him on the fundraising front. His 2022 fundraising was less than half the House average. But it gets worse. In his entire House career, Johnson has raised just $5.5 million. Ousted Speaker Kevin McCarthy and his aligned groups have (over multiple elections) raised north of $700 million. Said New York Rep. Mike Lawler, “it’s going to take some time to get back up to speed.” Turns out there’s a lot more to being speaker than legislating.

 TRIVIA 

If history is any guide, Rep. Dean Phillips is unlikely to pose much of a threat to President Biden’s reelection prospects.

Question: Who was the last president to not be his party’s nominee in the next election despite still being legally eligible for another term? What year was that election?

 BRIEFS 

💻 Adobe’s $20 billion purchase of Figma is still stuck in legal limbo more than a year after it was announced. Regulators are working to determine if the deal is “anticompetitive."

🐧 A little emperor penguin hatched at SeaWorld San Diego. This chick is the first one born in the entire Western Hemisphere since 2010.

🧀 A Norwegian bleu just won “best cheese” at the 35th World Cheese Awards. Who knew “cheese judge” was a real job? New life goal unlocked.

🍋 Panera’s Charged Lemonade drinks now have warning labels regarding their caffeine content. The change comes after a young woman with a heart condition died hours after drinking one.

🐠 For the second time in three years, a rare deep-sea footballfish washed up on a beach near Los Angeles. Per the photos of this thing, it is absolutely disgusting.

🇷🇺 An anti-Semitic mob overtook an airport in Russia’s Dagestan region. Several people were injured in the chaos. The area’s governor denounced the invasion.

⚖️ Google CEO Sundar Pichai will testify in the company’s landmark antitrust case. The government is trying to prove Google illegally used monopoly power to defeat its search competitors.

🪖 Per the War Powers Resolution, President Biden sent a letter to Congress explaining why the US military struck targets in Syria late last week.

 QUOTE 

You have to stop the Q-tip when there’s resistance!

— Matthew Perry’s favorite Chandler Bing one-liner.

 ANSWER 

Lyndon Johnson was not the Democratic nominee in 1968.

Extra Credit: Johnson took office in November 1963 after JFK’s assassination. He won the 1964 election and later announced a reelection bid for 1968. But 19 days after a poor showing in the New Hampshire primary (which he still won) against challenger Sen. Eugene McCarthy, he dropped out of the race.