Good morning and welcome to the second day of summer. A new vacation trend just dropped. But "quiet vacationing” has nothing to do with noise level. It’s for the PTO-starved among us who risk it for the biscuit by going on vacation without… going on vacation. Just don’t forget to move that mouse while you sip your piña colada.

2024

🏛️ Keys to the White House

Does the White House have keys? Back in 2014, some guy hopped the fence, ran right in the front door, and led the Secret Service in a one-way game of tag through the building. If there are keys, maybe they don’t get used often enough. But the “keys” we’re talking about today are those of Professor Alan Lichtman.

Lichtman says his “Keys to the White House” system has correctly predicted 9 of the last 10 presidential election winners.

• The system involves thirteen questions. If the current president loses on at least six of them, he gets the boot.

Here’s the list, along with Lichtman’s current take on things:

• 1. Who lost seats in the last congressional elections?

• 2. Does the president have a strong primary challenge?

• 3. Is there an incumbent president running for reelection?

• 4. Is there a major third-party candidate?

• 5. Is the economy in a recession?

• 6. Has the economy grown more during this term than the previous two?

• 7. Has the president pushed through a major policy change?

• 8. Is there widespread social unrest?

• 9. Is the president tainted by a major scandal?

• 10. Has the president suffered a major foreign policy failure?

• 11. Has the president won a major foreign policy success?

• 12. Is the current president super charismatic?

• 13. Is the challenger charismatic?

Lichtman has Biden losing two so far: number 1 (Democrats lost seats in the House in 2022) and number 12 (Biden’s rizz-free). A few others, like number 3, are obvious Biden wins. The rest should settle as we get the electoral ball rolling over the summer.

It should be noted that Lichtman is a Democrat. And he’s been criticized for the subjective nature of many of these.

• He’s also modified his system and changed plenty of these keys over the years. But every four years, he comes out of hibernation to take his place of honor on the news for a few months.

The 2024 race is about to kick into high gear. The first debate between Biden and Trump takes place next Thursday. Team Biden won the podium coin toss and opted for the right side of your TV. Trump, on the other hand, will get to speak last as the debate closes.

In other political and governmental news…

• 💸 The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) thinks this year's federal budget deficit will be $1.92 trillion, up 27% from 2023.

• 🤖 A group of 13 senators is pushing the limits of the backronym with the anti-deepfake “TAKE IT DOWN Act” (“Tools to Address Known Exploitation by Immobilizing Technological Deepfakes on Websites and Networks”).

• ⚖️ Louisiana’s governor “can’t wait to be sued” after signing a law mandating the Ten Commandments be displayed in classrooms, which he says was the norm for centuries in America.

POLITICS

🔴 You can't run a campaign without cash. And an aide to Sen. Ted Cruz accidentally dropped some embarrassing documents that help prove that point. They show how politicians skirt rules that limit campaign donations. In Cruz’s case, he was scheduled to meet Ron Lauder (yes, Estée's son) for lunch this week. Lauder can’t donate more than $6,600 to Cruz. But he can drop $119,200 as long as it’s spread around between Cruz’s campaign and assorted other Republican groups.

🔵 Ding dong, the boss is dead. Maybe. One of the nation’s last old-school political machine bosses was just indicted for racketeering. In a very on-brand move for the guy who's held an iron grip on South Jersey Democrats for 30 years, George Norcross himself showed up to the press conference announcing his indictment and sat smiling on the front row.

🔴 George Santos served 11 months in the House last year before becoming the sixth person in history to be expelled from Congress. What's he up to now? You'll have to subscribe to his OnlyFans to find out. Despite the site, his account won't host "adult content." He chose OnlyFans "to stir the pot."

⚪ Nevada Democrats are playing legal hardball with Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. They say state law forbids him from appearing on the Nevada ballot as an independent because he’s still a registered Democrat back home in New York.

🔴 The National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) is heating up its bid to retake the chamber with a $100 million ad blitz. And they might need the help. A new Emerson poll has Democratic candidates leading in Arizona, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by anywhere from 1% to 12%.

TRIVIA

Barring tragedy or scandal, American presidents stay in office for either four or eight years. The Brits have gone through four prime ministers since 2016. Dictators tend to stick around a little longer. In what year did Russian President Vladimir Putin first take office?

Hint: It was pre-Obama.

WORLD

🇦🇹 Austria: The Governator himself, Arnold Schwarzenegger, is back in the country of his birth speaking at the 8th annual Austrian World Summit. He founded the climate forum in 2017 and urged the audience yesterday to do "whatever it takes" to "save the planet."

🇮🇱 Israel: Terror group Hezbollah launched 45 rockets at Israel yesterday. It said the barrage was in response to Israel's killing of a Hezbollah commander. While all 45 attacks landed in open fields this time around, other Hezbollah-Israel skirmishes have been deadly for both sides.

🇵🇭 Philippines: The Philippine military secretly reinforced the structure of a rusty old shipwreck in the South China Sea. It's stationed sailors there since purposely running the ship aground in 1999 to help solidify its claim over a tiny island that's also claimed by China.

🇬🇧 United Kingdom: The U.K.'s ruling Conservative Party is going down in flames in next month's elections. Now some party officials are under investigation for using insider information to gamble on that election. There's nothing like a little scandal to feed the flames of a dumpster fire.

BRIEFS

• After months stuck on board, crewmembers of the MV Dali — the ship that crashed in Baltimore — are on their way home to (mostly) India

• SpaceX announced it will sell a miniature, backpack-sized version of its Starlink satellite internet antenna for $599

• The S&P 500 stock market index briefly hit an all-time high yesterday afternoon before closing slightly down

• Outgoing Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte will become secretary-general of the NATO military alliance in October

• New York is the latest state to require parental consent for some types of social media use by kids

• Pornhub will block access to its network of sites in five more states due to age verification laws, bringing the total to 12

• A Maine couple owes their neighbors $1.5 million after poisoning the neighbors’ trees to clear up their own view of the ocean

QUOTE

SNACKS

🌐 Internet: Ever wonder what the internet looked like back in 1994 when fax machines roamed the earth and Mufasa’s death still stung? Look no further.

📽️ RIP: Donald Sutherland, known to Millennials as President Snow, sadly passed away at 88. Back in 1970, he also starred in the movie version of MASH.

🏺 Thrifting: If you ever see a $3.99 vase at a thrift store, maybe think about buying it. A woman in Washington, D.C. did just that. Turns out it was a 2,000-year-old Mayan artifact.

ANSWER

Putin (wonder if that means the same thing in Russian as it does in English) first became president on May 7, 2000. Prior to that, he was prime minister for about a year. He dropped back down to become prime minister again from 2008 to 2012 due to term limits but quickly did away with those before returning to the presidency in 2012.